[vc_row][vc_column][vc_tta_accordion active_section=”0″ collapsible_all=”true”][vc_tta_section i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-map-signs” add_icon=”true” title=”Click here to navigate the site” tab_id=”1524161017781-786bad50-8577″][vc_column_text]Introduction
A Closer Look at the Alameda Point Redevelopment
Financing Development On Land and On Water
Recap: Who’s Disrupted[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_accordion][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row el_id=”introduction”][vc_column][vc_column_text]
Introduction
The Military’s Presence in California
California has a long and involved relationship with the United States military. World War II, in particular, ushered in a number of military bases throughout the state, converting airports and other civilian spaces into engines of war. Throughout the Cold War, the military continued to use many of these bases. However, at the conclusion of the Cold War, the U.S. government decided to close at least 26 bases concentrated in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. This opened up real estate close to water, transit, and employment centers in hot residential and commercial markets.
The map below shows the 26 bases that the Department of Defense closed or transitioned to new uses. Click on a marker to learn more about each base, its period of operation, and a link for more information.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_gmaps link=”#E-8_JTNDaWZyYW1lJTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbSUyRm1hcHMlMkZkJTJGdSUyRjAlMkZlbWJlZCUzRm1pZCUzRDFXN3FqZ1EtWXFWVC1fNlpVbHNvY2Z4S1JXVkdqNWdndyUyMiUyMHdpZHRoJTNEJTIyNjQwJTIyJTIwaGVpZ2h0JTNEJTIyNDgwJTIyJTNFJTNDJTJGaWZyYW1lJTNF” css_animation=”fadeIn”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
Navigation: Introduction | Case Study: Alameda Point | The Future of Development | Recap: Who’s Disrupted
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Case Study: Alameda Point
The Past, Present, and Future of One Decommissioned Base
[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Alameda Point has evolved since trains first arrived in the late 19th century. Once a marshland, the area became home to the Bay Area’s nascent aviation industry in the 1930s. Its level ground, freedom from fog, and proximity to water made it an attractive place to build an airport, or three (at one point, the San Francisco Bay Airdrome, the Alameda Municipal Airport, and Benton Field all operated on the island). Air travel offered new ways for people and goods to move around the region, the state, and the world.
By the late 1930s, the Navy had taken over what would become Naval Air Station (NAS) Alameda. The base operated from 1940 to 1997. For most of the last 20 years, the site has been relatively vacant, with the exception of some distilleries and TV show and movie filming. Meanwhile, the tech scene has taken the Bay Area by storm, raising real estate prices and threatening to transform places like Alameda and East Palo Alto. Like many other former military bases, Alameda Point offers valuable real estate close to water, transit, and employment centers. More recently, plans for redevelopment of the site have been set in motion. Alameda Point even has its own section in the zoning code.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_gmaps link=”#E-8_JTNDaWZyYW1lJTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbSUyRm1hcHMlMkZkJTJGZW1iZWQlM0ZtaWQlM0QxakhTckoxMUFpRXF4em5oR3p2Ql90Q3VFbVVSSnRZSjUlMjZobCUzRGVuJTIyJTIwd2lkdGglM0QlMjI2NDAlMjIlMjBoZWlnaHQlM0QlMjI0ODAlMjIlM0UlM0MlMkZpZnJhbWUlM0U=” size=”645″ css_animation=”fadeInDown”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
The sections below offer a visual history of the site and reflect on the
future of development in regions like the Bay Area that are threatened by
rising sea levels and suffer from a shortage of undeveloped land.
What will happen when there are no more decommissioned naval bases to develop?
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Navigation: Introduction | Case Study: Alameda Point | The Future of Development | Recap: Who’s Disrupted
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A Visual History of Alameda Point
Hover over the images below to learn more about the history of the site.
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A Closer Look at the Alameda Point Site A Redevelopment
The section below provides more detail on the redevelopment plan. Like many former military bases, Alameda Point is contaminated and requires remediation. Alameda Point Partners paid $15 million for 68.5 acres of publicly-owned land. What will happen to developers’ bottom line when there is no more public land to develop?
Budget: $500 million ($80 million alone in infrastructure)
Site: 68.5 acres
Development team: Alameda Point Partners, a joint venture with:
Unit breakdown: 673 housing units in total
130 units affordable to low- and very-low income households
310 units affordable to middle-income households
Retail: 93,000 square feet
Amenities: 8 acres of parks and open space; sports complex
Transportation: Seaplane Lagoon Ferry Terminal
Expected timeline: first residential units move-in ready in 2021[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_images_carousel images=”8508,8991,9121,9122,9123,9124″ img_size=”large” autoplay=”yes” wrap=”yes”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
Navigation: Introduction | Case Study: Alameda Point | The Future of Development | Recap: Who’s Disrupted
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The Future of Development: on Land or on Water?
Alameda Point has experienced many disruptions to date: the rise of the aviation industry, both World Wars, population growth, the Cold War, base closure through BRAC, the rise of tech, and impending redevelopment. However, it is worth reflecting what the future has in store for this historic site and for other decommissioned bases. Rising sea levels from climate change? Soil liquefaction after the Big One [Earthquake]? Rising rents and home prices?
The sections below imagine development in a future where we have exhausted our supply of surplus land on decommissioned bases and may also be competing with the rising tides of climate change or the consequences of earthquake-induced liquefaction.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row el_id=”floatingislands”][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_column_text]
Development on Water:
Floating Islands
Seasteading in French Polynesia
The Seasteading Institute is a nonprofit that was founded in 2008 by libertarians Patri Friedman and Peter Thiel. The founders’ early vision was to build these communities on the open ocean in international waters as a way to “escape from politics in all its forms,” according to co-founder Peter Thiel in 2009. While their goal remains largely the same these days – to “bring about global change through incremental, market-based solutions” – the Seasteading Institute realized that building islands in the open ocean would take an engineering feat:
Currently, the high cost of open ocean engineering serves as a large barrier to entry, and hinders entrepreneurship in international waters. This has led us to look for cost-reducing solutions within the territorial waters of a host nation, while still remaining dedicated to the goal of obtaining political autonomy for governmental experiments.
Their most recent endeavor is the Floating Island Project in French Polynesia, where they plan to build 12 islands with homes, hotels, offices, restaurants, and living roofs. The current designs feature 1.5-story, 25-meter-wide, modular platforms that can accommodate as many as 30 people.
They estimate $60 million in construction costs ($5 million per island) and plan to fund development with an initial coin offering (ICO), which uses blockchain technology, in fall 2017.
Additional reading list:
- To read more about crowdfunding, check out the materials in this folder.
- To read more about modular construction and other real estate tech, visit this folder.
- For more discussion on regulation, government, and technology, see DeNuccio’s 2015 Wired article, “Silicon Valley is Letting Go of its Techie Island Fantasies.”
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Development on Water:
Floating Islands
The Netherlands
Faced with rising sea levels and overpopulation, the Netherlands is also experimenting with floating island technology. Two models are described below.
(1) Researchers with the Space@Sea Project, a collaboration among several European countries, hope to build islands as much as a mile wide. Though the model picture below is made of wood and polystyrene, they plan to construct the life-sized islands out of steel and concrete.
(2) The Floating Farm in Rotterdam houses 40 cows and produces 800 liters of milk per day. A dairy farmer and a dairy manager currently staff the farm. Eventually, robots will feed and clean up after dairy cows.
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Financing Development On Land and On Water
Alameda Point Partners paid $15 million for 68.5 acres of publicly-owned land, but what if developers tried to purchase and build on 68.5 acres of privately-owned land close to water, transit, and employment centers (assuming that large a site existed). Land in nearby Oakland is trading for anywhere from $6 million to $20 million per acre, compared to just under $220,000 per acre at Alameda Point.
What if developers ran out of land to develop and turned to water instead? Developing on water might get rid of acquisition and remediation costs, but increase hard and soft costs.
Expand the sections below to see a preliminary financial analysis of developing on land and on water.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row css_animation=”none”][vc_column][vc_tta_accordion active_section=”0″ css_animation=”none” collapsible_all=”true”][vc_tta_section i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-leaf” add_icon=”true” title=”Financing Development On Land” tab_id=”1524072595406-3ab6f849-bd28″][vc_single_image image=”9498″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” css_animation=”fadeIn”][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_accordion][vc_tta_accordion active_section=”0″ collapsible_all=”true”][vc_tta_section i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-tint” add_icon=”true” title=” Financing Development On Water” tab_id=”1524072619322-7c8ccf60-bbcb”][vc_single_image image=”9499″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” css_animation=”fadeIn”][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_accordion][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
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Recap: Who’s disrupted in the past, present, and future?
Click on that tabs below to see how disruptions in the past, present, and future affect different stakeholders.
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DISRUPTION: War
In the 1930s, the Navy essentially pushed out multiple civilian airports in order to take possession of Alameda Point, valuable for its level ground, deep water access, and relatively fog-free conditions. Alameda Airport and the San Francisco Bay Airdrome survived less than a decade before ceding the land to the Department of Defense.[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Defense industry” tab_id=”1523556264021-bfb5024f-a079″][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: End of the Cold War, Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)
The defense industry struggled to maintain performance at the end stages of the Cold War. 18,000 people lost their jobs as a result of the base closure in 1997. What was once a navy town was forced to forge a new identity.
Alameda has transitioned back to civilian use, but what would happen in the event of another world war? Would the military reclaim this land?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Developers” tab_id=”1524069601909-3d9fcfde-ccbe”][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: climate change, earthquakes, land prices, floating islands, crypto-currencies
Developers are snatching up decommissioned bases like Alameda Point all over the region and the state, but what will happen when there are no more bases left to develop on? Other trends threaten to exhaust the supply of available land, including rising sea levels, the next big earthquake, and skyrocketing land values. Will developers turn to water? Will these floating islands become eco-districts? Will developers raise financing through crypto-currency offerings?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Government” tab_id=”1524069644093-ba5dee31-9a18″][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: War, Cold War, BRAC, climate change, earthquakes, floating islands
Local governments like the City of Alameda transferred civilian land (Alameda Municipal Airport) over to the Department of Defense during wartime. They took it back after these bases were decommissioned and closed, developing reuse plans along the way. They leveraged and continue to leverage this land to achieve their housing affordability goals. What will they do once there is no more public land to leverage? If floating islands take off, what government would have jurisdiction over them (if any)? Would a floating island’s residents “vote with their feet” and leave the Bay altogether?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Homeowners” tab_id=”1523556361065-22486a41-e02e”][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: War, tech, redevelopment, climate change, earthquakes, floating islands
Alameda used to be a “dense streetcar suburb” of San Francisco. Then it became a “company town” with the establishment of the Naval Air Station. The rise of the tech industry has caused home prices to surge. With greater density and possibly greater traffic congestion due to the Alameda Point redevelopment, how will homeowners adapt? What about rising sea levels? Parts of Alameda used to be marshland, which means that it’s vulnerable to liquefaction. What will happen when the next large earthquake hits? What will happen to home values and homeowners’ equity? What might it mean to be a homeowner on a floating city?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Renters” tab_id=”1523558581507-e48f12e5-56e6″][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: tech, redevelopment, climate change, earthquakes, floating islands
Because of its relative isolation and distance from BART, Alameda remains somewhat affordable. However, renters like Rommel Laguardia and his family are increasingly facing eviction and/or rent hikes. What will happen to renters when a new ferry line at Alameda Point and a second BART tunnel across the Bay make Alameda more accessible? Will investors buy up the few existing multifamily properties and force tenants out? What will happen to Alameda’s supply of rental housing stock in the event of an earthquake and rising sea water?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”Business owners” tab_id=”1523558606058-b3d60036-5fdd”][vc_column_text]
DISRUPTIONS: war, BRAC, redevelopment, online retail, floating islands
The expansion of the base during wartime boosted demand for retail and services. BRAC led 18,000 people to lose their jobs, which likely led to a fall in demand for goods and services. The Alameda Point redevelopment includes the construction of 93,000 square feet of retail. Will this additional retail and the rise of online retail compete with existing business owners? Looking further afield, will business owners opt for setting up shop on floating islands?[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_tabs][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
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